Voyageur 80
Carney Is One Seat from a Majority. Monday Will Decide, and The PQ Is 20 Points Ahead in Quebec. Almost Nobody Wants Sovereignty.
News for residents of the “11th province”: Canadians abroad.
Please don’t forget to share, subscribe or send feedback.
Carney Is One Seat from a Majority. Monday Will Decide.
Marilyn Gladu became the fifth Conservative MP to cross the floor to the Liberals this week, putting Mark Carney's government at 171 seats - one short of the 172 needed for a majority in the House of Commons.
Three federal byelections on Monday will settle it. Voters in Scarborough Southwest, University-Rosedale, and Terrebonne will head to the polls, and the Liberals only need to win in one of them to hit the magic number. Win two, and Carney can pass legislation without relying on the Speaker or any opposition votes. Win all three, and he has a comfortable cushion.
The floor crossings have been steady since Carney took over as PM. Five Conservative MPs have now switched sides, which may be indicative of the mood inside the Poilievre caucus. Gladu, who represents Sarnia-Lambton in southwestern Ontario, said the switch was "the best thing" for her riding.
For Canadians abroad, a majority government means Ottawa can move faster on files that matter to expats - immigration overhauls (Voyageur 79), passport processing (Voyageur 74), and the CUSMA review due in July (Voyageur 76) - without needing to horse-trade with the NDP or Bloc.
Read more: Global News / Washington Post
Advertisement:
A photo from the old country:
The PQ Is 20 Points Ahead in Quebec. Almost Nobody Wants Sovereignty.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's Parti Québécois leads Quebec polls by nearly 20 points over François Legault's CAQ, and the provincial election is scheduled for October. If recent numbers hold, the PQ should win comfortably. But, there's a catch.
When pollsters ask Quebecers the actual sovereignty question - would you vote for or against Quebec independence? - 54 percent say no. Only 35 percent give a yes. Even more telling, 62 percent don't want a referendum at all, with 46 percent saying they're "very unfavourable" to the idea. People are voting PQ without buying what the PQ is actually selling.
Trump is part of the reason. Plamondon himself said he's heard from voters that now isn't the time, with American tariffs and trade threats making economic uncertainty feel too real. Ottawa's foreign affairs minister went further, warning that independence would "hand Quebec over to Donald Trump." The threat from the south, it turns out, is making Quebecers want more Canada, not less.
Plamondon hasn't backed off his referendum pledge, but he's added some wiggle room - saying the PQ would be "strategic" about timing over a four-year mandate. Translation: don't hold your breath.
Read more: The Walrus / Global News